New Year's Resolution Success Odds Calculator

Most resolutions fail by February — but yours doesn't have to. Answer a few quick questions and get a personalized probability score based on the factors research shows actually matter.

Your Estimated Success Odds
Specificity Score
Motivation Score
Accountability Bonus (%)
Tracking Bonus (%)
Past Attempt Penalty (%)

About this calculator

Estimate your realistic odds of sticking to your New Year's resolution based on research-backed factors like specificity, support system, and past track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this based on real science?

The scoring model is inspired by published behavior-change research (e.g. studies on goal specificity, accountability, and self-monitoring), simplified into a fun, illustrative point system — not a clinical prediction.

Why do past attempts lower my score?

Research suggests repeated unsuccessful attempts at the identical goal without changing approach often correlate with lower success rates, though it's not a hard rule — reframing your strategy can flip this.

How can I improve my odds?

Make your goal more specific and measurable, tell a friend or post about it publicly, and track your progress regularly — the three biggest levers in this calculator.